The critics have spoken but we're none the wiser about who'll stride victoriously on to that Oscar stage come February 22. If it was a simple numbers game, then we'd all do well to run out now and place a bet on The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. The costly drama emerges as the frontrunner if you aggregate the Golden Globe and Broadcast Film Critics Association nominations announced this week. But it's not that simple - the road to the Academy Awards is paved with distractions and one group's champion is another's pariah.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the eccentric, 90-strong convocation of international journalists that vote on the Globes, gave five nominations each to Benjamin Button and Frost/Nixon. The Broadcast Film Critics felt Benjamin Button was worthy of eight nominations and gave the same number to Milk, which has been all but shut out of the Globes, where only Sean Penn flies the flag in the best actor race. Both the New York and Los Angeles critics groups named Penn their best actor winner this week, while the National Board of Review voted Clint Eastwood its actor of the year for Gran Torino. Meanwhile, everyone in Hollywood's talking about Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon.
Sally Hawkins followed up her Berlin Golden Bear for Happy-Go-Lucky by winning the New York and Los Angeles critics' best actress prizes this week. She's crashed the party, but there's plenty of campaigning ahead. The best film race is intriguing, too: will it be Benjamin Button, Milk (the New York critics' choice), WALL-E (a bold choice for winner by the Los Angeles critics), Frost/Nixon, Slumdog Millionaire (which was recently voted best film of 2008 by the National Board of Review) or another? Can we agree to follow the example of the awards groups and write off Rupert Murdoch's costly whim, Australia, from the get-go?
So who are the strong bets for Oscar? To answer that, we shouldn't be distracted by what the critics say because critics and Academy members are very different beasts. The former are smart, out of touch with audiences and diligent about swotting up on the year's movies. The latter are smart, sentimental, populist, very old, and lazy about seeing the movies. That being said I reckon Slumdog Millionaire will pull more heartstrings than anything else and will win best picture. I'm not a huge fan of the movie, but it has artistry, passion and imagination by the bucket-load. Most importantly, it's uplifting in a straightforward, old-fashioned Hollywood way that's been in short supply this rather dismal awards season. Fox Searchlight (Juno, Little Miss Sunshine) is releasing the movie and they run a canny awards campaign. Benjamin Button is magnificent although emotionally unengaging so I don't fancy it for best picture. I do, however, think the great David Fincher will win the director prize and will stake my imaginary hat on an Oscar for makeup, too.
I would dearly love Mickey Rourke to win the best actor prize for The Wrestler, but he's upset too many people in the business. I reckon it'll go to Frost/Nixon's Langella, a fine actor who delivers a fine performance and who's never won before. On his tail all the way will be Eastwood and Penn. Benicio Del Toro is magnificent in Che but it's four-and-a-half hours long and I believe I'm one of only nine people who have actually sat through the entire thing, including the cast and crew. We each have a tattoo to prove it.
The best actress category is so tough this year because while Hawkins delivers what I believe to be the only great performance by a female actor this season (as the chirpy teacher in Happy-Go-Lucky), she's not that well known. Could she win it? I hope so, but I fancy Angelina Jolie's histrionics in Changeling will catch voters' eyes. The sympathy vote will ensure that Heath Ledger gets best supporting actor for The Dark Knight but Robert Downey Jr deserves it for Tropic Thunder. There's a lot of admiration in the industry for Viola Davis's turn in Doubt but I suspect the award will go to either Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona or Kate Winslet if she gets nominated for The Reader - both are being marshalled by Harvey Weinstein. And last but not least: Man On Wire for documentary; WALL-E for animation; Gomorrah for foreign language picture; Robert Siegel's original screenplay for The Wrestler; and Simon Beaufoy's adapted screenplay for Slumdog Millionaire.
What do you think?
