The ill wind of Disney’s war with Ron DeSantis over LGBTQ+ rights appears to be blowing some magic pixie dust towards California as the theme park giant reins back its investment in Florida and ramps up spending in the Golden state.

Analysts see the company reprioritizing its expansion plans as its conflict with Florida’s rightwing governor and his so-called “don’t say gay” law banning classroom discussion of gender identity and sexual orientation escalates into a legal dispute.

In May, Disney canceled a $1bn project to build an office campus and relocate 2,000 employees to Orlando. It also pulled the plug on a Star Wars hotel that had been open at Disney World for less than two years.

Now, following comments from Disney’s chief executive Bob Iger that DeSantis is “anti-business” and “anti-Florida”, the company is all in on Disneyland Forward, an ambitious rolling program of growth at its two Anaheim theme parks. The company projects the program will generate $253m annually and more than 2,200 new jobs.

Last month, California’s Democratic governor, Gavin Newsom, no friend of his Republican Florida counterpart, attended Disneyland’s Pride Nite and blamed his state’s good fortune on DeSantis’s attacks on non-binary communities.

“In California, we don’t just tolerate our diversity, we celebrate it and all the ways it makes us stronger,” he said in a statement. “Our inclusivity and acceptance attract new talent and ideas that drive our economic growth and make California a hotspot for world-leading companies to grow and prosper.”

Publicly, Disney leaders have only hinted at a correlation, separately citing “considerable changes” in Florida’s business environment and “more opportunity” in California for recent actions.

But longtime Disney watchers and business analysts have little doubt the company’s strategy, in the short term at least, is tied to its ongoing battle in Florida and the presence of DeSantis, whose stuttering campaign for the Republican presidential nomination is being weighed down by the controversy.

“There is a relationship,” said business analyst Bill George, former chief executive of Medtronic and author of True North: Leading Authentically in Today’s Workplace.

“DeSantis has done lasting harm to Disney’s investments in Florida, and they’ve already pulled investment and said 2,000 people are not moving, they’ve already canceled that. I’m in touch with a lot of CEOs who are looking at those issues right now and thinking, ‘Where should I invest? What’s best for the long run?’”

George said Disney, Florida’s largest private employer with 75,000 cast members, many LGBTQ+, would also want to consider their welfare.

“I have friends, men with husbands, women with wives and children, and they’ve got to send them to school in a place that makes them feel uncomfortable because they have two mothers or two fathers? I wouldn’t want to be in an environment like that,” he said.

“As a CEO, it’s important to me, is this a good place for my employees to live, go to school, to grow up, the environment’s good, we have good natural resources and all the other stuff? That’s not even so much political, but environmental.”

He added that he thought Disney would eventually settle the lawsuits “because they don’t want to be in a big fight with the government of Florida”, and that ultimately the political fallout will dissipate.

“To hardcore rightwingers, the brand’s been damaged in the same way as Bud Light, but I don’t know any parents, or grandparents, or kids that don’t want to go to Disney. It’s just something they do,” he said.

Tom Bricker, editor of disneytouristblog.com, sees “a golden window of opportunity” for Disney in California, partly because of the Florida troubles, newly elected “friendly” city leaders in Anaheim, and the backing of Newsom and state leaders.

“There’s the practical reality that Disney is not going to be in a financial position to build everything everywhere all at once, [and] in the near to medium term tough decisions are going to be made about expansion,” he wrote.

“That aforementioned window with California, coupled with the ongoing standoff in Florida, potentially makes it easier to justify prioritizing Disneyland.”

Bricker also notes the outsize roles being played by DeSantis and Newsom. “The two home-state governors where Disney does business have become central figures in the culture wars, almost reflexively opposing one another on every issue. This is not a value judgment about either, it is what it is,” he said.

“In any case, the Walt Disney company has become a ‘victim’ of this dynamic in Florida and, by extension, a beneficiary in California. [But] Disney is not going anywhere and will outlast any politicians and corporate executives. We will be applauding the inevitable photo op between the CEO of Disney and whoever is the governor of Florida in three years when the current unpleasantness is in the rearview mirror.”

Disney analyst Peter Kunze, assistant professor of communications at Tulane University, notes that the company still has plans for massive long-term investment at Disney World and also sees it playing a long game to protect its prized asset in Florida.

“The reality for DeSantis is his time is limited, and my impression is that it’s not paying off for him the way he thinks it is,” he said. “It undercuts the traditional Republican platform of being job creators – normally they get out of the way of business.

“What’s interesting is that it’s DeSantis supporters who are upset by it … as opposed to those who have some kind of economic or financial investment in Disney continuing to be this kind of generator of economic development and growth,” he added.

“It’s kind of strange to see this quintessentially mainstream American institution being attacked by these organizations that position themselves as family values. It’s become a bit of a standoff between two powerful egos and without a clear victory for either in part because of this entanglement of business and politics.”