Without a cinema-shuttering pandemic or a production-pausing strike in the way, this year’s fall festival season should have felt like a grand return to normal. There were Oscar winners in the mix – Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, Adrien Brody, Ron Howard, Joaquin Phoenix – as well as a host of major biopics and adaptations, making for a robust, awards-friendly lineup on paper.

But with Venice, Telluride and Toronto now out of the way, the Oscar race is far less certain than it usually is at this stage, without a clear Oppenheimer or Everything Everywhere All at Once to bet on.

One of the likeliest contenders actually premiered at last year’s Toronto film festival, a hushed debut for a film seeking distribution. Sing Sing, an emotive drama about a theatre troupe inside a prison, was met with strong notices at the time and soon after, A24 picked up the rights, releasing it earlier this summer. It didn’t break out at the speciality box office as some might have expected (it failed to even crack $3m) but it continued to play well with critics and gained a jumpstart on the race, screening earlier to voters than most other competitors. After receiving his first nomination for last year’s Rustin, Colman Domingo is a strong contender for another best actor nod (the last actor to get nominated two years in a row in this category was Denzel Washington in 2016 and 2017) and his co-star Clarence Maclin, playing a younger version of himself, might sneak into the best supporting actor race. That festival also saw the premiere of His Three Daughters, another film seeking a buyer, which quickly saw buzz for its trio of actors – Elizabeth Olsen, Carrie Coon and Natasha Lyonne – with the last seen as a best supporting actress possibility. The film was then bought by Netflix.

The year started off with the Sundance film festival where previous years have given us Oscar-winning films such as Promising Young Woman, Coda and Navalny. The film that had most Oscar prognosticators excited was A Real Pain, a comedy drama about two Jewish cousins on a tour in Poland, directed by and starring Jesse Eisenberg. It was his co-star Kieran Culkin who most saw as the standout performer, hoping to graduate from Emmy to Oscar winner after his recent win for Succession. The film got picked up by Searchlight and a best supporting actor campaign is already heating up. There was another potential acting nominee from Park City in the four-time nominee Saoirse Ronan who played a recovering alcoholic in The Outrun. It was the kind of intense, every-scene performance the Academy loves and with a post-fest pick-up by Sony Pictures Classics (who also ushered Anthony Hopkins’ turn in Sundance premiere The Father to an Oscar win), she could easily find herself a five-timer soon. Other narrative contenders were thin on the ground despite strong work from André Holland in Exhibiting Forgiveness (probably too small to get more than a Spirit nom) and Maisy Stella in My Old Ass (probably too broad to get more than a Globe nom) – although don’t count out Didi, a film that seems to have quietly gained a following since a summer release, and Joan Chen, who could be a dark horse for best supporting actress.

At the same festival, the documentary race officially kicked off with a number of breakouts including Daughters, which won the audience award and was bought by Netflix; Sugarcane, which won a directing prize and has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes; and the Will Ferrell-led Will & Harper, which found success with audiences at the fall fests after also being bought by Netflix. Even though the Academy has tended to avoid celebrity-driven docs in recent years, the undeniable emotional swell of the last film, along with a timely focus on the difficulties of being trans in certain parts of America, could make it a winner.

After Sundance, the release of big-budget sequel Dune: Part Two saw even stronger reviews than the first (92% vs 83%), which suggested it will probably at least repeat the original’s success at the Oscars, if not outdo it. (Part One picked up six Oscars and was nominated for four others.)

Then in May, the Cannes film festival (which last year gave us three best picture nominees in Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon and The Zone of Interest) unveiled some instant favourites. A Palme d’Or has increasingly translated into a best picture nod (three of the last four winners went onto either win or get nominated) and it’s a safe-ish bet that this year’s Anora, Sean Baker’s raucous comedy drama about a sex worker, will follow. It was a big hit with critics on the ground and has continued to play well at festivals since – it was close to winning the audience award at Toronto and its star Mikey Madison is a shoo-in for a best actress nomination. Many thought the jury there would hand her the award, but instead it was split between the four women of another critical darling, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. The idiosyncratic crime comedy drama musical, about a cartel boss seeking to transition as a woman, wasn’t to everyone’s taste but those who went for it, really went for it. Like Anora, it’s also played extremely well at festivals since, emerging as another runner-up for Toronto’s audience award. Netflix, who picked it up soon after the premiere, is reportedly campaigning three of the film’s winning troupe of actors – Zoe Saldana, Adriana Paz and Selena Gomez – as best supporting actress contenders. And while it isn’t that unlikely for two actors in the same film to get into that category, all three would be unprecedented (as would a best actress nom for Karla Sofía Gascón, who could become the first trans female actor to get an Oscar nomination). As of today, it was also officially selected as France’s international feature submission.

There were non-starters there too. Francis Ford Coppola’s self-funded folly Megalopolis was met with confusion, Yorgos Lanthimos might have become an unlikely Oscar favourite but Kinds of Kindness was seen as too offbeat for the Academy, and while there was some love for Furiosa, it didn’t have the same jolt of energy that Fury Road had and is unlikely to replicate its success with voters.

After Cannes, the summer saw a bigger-than-Barbie-sized blockbuster in Inside Out 2, a huge, $1.68bn return to form for Pixar that some believe might push them past the animated feature race to the best picture lineup, making it the company’s first nominee since Toy Story 3 in 2010.

Then it became time for the fall festivals, kicking off with Venice, traditionally the most reliable birthplace for Oscar contenders (Nomadland, Gravity, Birdman, Tár, etc). There was a lot of buzz surrounding Maria, Pablo Larraín’s third rule-defying biopic of a famous woman after Jackie and Spencer. Those films both secured best actress nominations for their leading ladies and it’s safe to assume former winner Angelina Jolie will also follow, firmly on the comeback trail for her performance as Maria Callas. Netflix swiftly picked it up and while the film might be too divisive to receive recognition elsewhere, Jolie is close to a lock. Another Oscar winner Nicole Kidman gained buzz for her role in erotic comedy thriller Babygirl, playing a CEO engaging in a BDSM relationship with a young intern. While Kidman is certainly loved by the Academy and reviews have used buzzwords like brave and daring, the tone might not be Oscar-friendly enough. There was an even tougher sell from Luca Guadagnino and his audacious adaptation of William Burroughs’ autobiographical novel Queer, which bewitched many but also baffled others. Daniel Craig was praised for his go-for-broke performance and the film was picked up by A24 but it’s yet to be given a release date and some think, given its unlikely Oscar chances, that it might be held for next year.

In fact, A24 has their hands full this year and will potentially be putting the majority of their force behind another Venice hit, Brady Corbet’s ambitious historical drama The Brutalist. The 215-minute long epic (which includes an intermission) received raves on the ground, pushing Corbet into the best director race (an award he won at Venice) and also Adrien Brody as best actor, an unlikely comeback for an actor whose career has been suffering since his win for The Pianist. Another winner who looks less likely to repeat his success – at least this year – is Joaquin Phoenix, whose return as Arthur Fleck in musical sequel Joker: Folie à Deux was one of the biggest disappointments of the festival. Neither he nor Lady Gaga could save what most saw as a pointless follow-up (its Rotten Tomatoes rating is at 63% and falling) and it’s quickly turned into a non-starter for awards.

The biggest award of the festival went to Pedro Almodóvar’s English-language melodrama The Room Next Door, a Sigrid Nunez adaptation starring Oscar winners Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore. The film might not be Oscar-friendly enough to push Almodóvar out of the international feature race and into the best picture one but the might of the two actors could have an impact. The decision to position them both as best actress contenders may prove a problem however.

Onto Telluride, a festival that last year gave us The Holdovers, Nyad and Rustin, and this year offered at least four big contenders. The biggest of which was Conclave, a tense adaptation of Robert Harris’s Vatican-set thriller from the All Quiet on the Western Front director Edward Berger. It was a huge audience hit both at Telluride and later Toronto (the premiere was full of gasps, cheers and applause) and is one of the most surefire contenders for a number of nominations, including for stars Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and, in a small yet impactful role, Isabella Rossellini. There was also buzz for the August Wilson adaptation The Piano Lesson and its actors, particularly Ray Fisher and Danielle Deadwyler, who was seen as getting an egregious snub for her role in Till but is now a likely lock for a supporting actress nod this time around. Given how the Academy appreciated both Fences and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (six nominations and three wins between them), expect more Wilson love here. There were also rave reviews for RaMell Ross’s adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Nickel Boys but also question marks about whether the Academy would embrace something so tough and formally experimental, as it’s a story of abuse told via a first-person point-of-view perspective. Although the same younger and more international voting body who also admired The Zone of Interest could help there.

The final big hit of the festival came into Telluride after a quiet Venice bow and without a buyer and while it’s a more unusual marketplace than other festivals, it worked out well for the fact-based drama September 5, which garnered excellent reviews and a major pick-up by Paramount. It tells the story of how the ABC Sports crew covered the 1972 Munich Olympics and has already been compared to best picture winners Argo and Spotlight. Paramount is feeling bullish about its chances and has given it a big Thanksgiving release.

Elsewhere, the unusual Robbie Williams biopic Better Man, which replaces the singer with a CGI monkey, had its fans but could be too odd for an Academy also largely unfamiliar with the singer, while SNL biopic Saturday Night seemed to divide critics and might be too inside baseball for big awards.

Then at a more muted Toronto, there weren’t many awards breakouts to be seen. The biggest came from Mike Leigh, whose much-anticipated drama Hard Truths (his first contemporary-set movie since 2010) was easily the best-reviewed film of the festival. It’s the story of a woman angry with the world and gives Leigh’s former collaborator Marianne Jean-Baptiste a juicy lead role, one that could well get her a second Oscar nomination (she previously scored a best supporting actress nod for Leigh’s Secrets & Lies). The only stumbling blocks are a US distributor less experienced with the awards trail and a character that could be too unlikeable for some – a silly problem mostly faced by female characters rather than male. The other breakout was The Wild Robot, a universally adored animation from Universal that immediately announced itself as an animated feature front-runner.

Elsewhere, the Barry Jenkins-scripted boxing drama The Fire Inside was well-received and could launch previous nominee Brian Tyree Henry into the best supporting actor race but buzz was frustratingly quiet. Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch had been viewed as a major Oscar play for Amy Adams but reviews grew increasingly tepid so she might have to settle for a Golden Globe nom instead. A slightly more likely, and far more deserving, best actress contender would be Florence Pugh in romantic drama We Live in Time but the film might be (unfairly) seen as too broad and soapy for Oscars. Then Ron Howard’s starry Eden, with Oscar nominees Jude Law, Ana de Armas and Vanessa Kirby, was too silly to be taken all that seriously.

Toronto’s big audience award, voted on by attendees, has become a surefire Oscar predictor (the last time a winner didn’t score a best picture nomination or win was in 2011) but this year’s winner The Life of Chuck was a shock to most. The Stephen King adaptation starring Tom Hiddleston had a buzz-free premiere and left the festival still without distribution, leaving a question mark over its Oscar chances at least for this year.

Later this month, the New York film festival kicks off but it’s light on world premieres and will be looked at to see how certain replays like Nickel Boys, Hard Truths and The Room Next Door play to a new crowd. The London film festival also has an unusually high-profile world premiere in Steve McQueen’s second world war drama Blitz which stars Saoirse Ronan and Harris Dickinson. Two Oscar-winning directors will also unveil their new films at the AFI festival in Los Angeles: Robert Zemeckis with his ambitious period-spanning drama Here reuniting Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, and Clint Eastwood with his legal thriller Juror No 2 starring Nicholas Hoult and Toni Collette, a film that was only just dated in the past week.

Outside of festivals, the first chapter of Wicked has many waiting to see if it can overcome a troubling marketing campaign and benefit from the Academy’s long-running love of musicals, Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II is also hoping to be as much of a success at the Oscars as the 2000 original (five wins and another seven nominations) and Timothée Chalamet is aiming to score his second best actor nomination, this time playing Bob Dylan in biopic A Complete Unknown, a genre that remains irresistible to the Academy.

Seven safe-ish nominee bets

Ralph Fiennes – best actor, Conclave

Mikey Madison – best actress, Anora

Zoe Saldana – best supporting actress, Emilia Pérez

Brady Corbet – best director, The Brutalist

Danielle Deadwyler – best supporting actress, The Piano Lesson

Angelina Jolie – best actress, Maria

Kieran Culkin – best supporting actor, A Real Pain