While last year’s ceremony found itself dominated by elegant Brit dramas The Crown and The Night Manager, the 2018 TV Golden Globes nominations suggest this is likely to be a more scattered and open race. The Handmaid’s Tale and Big Little Lies did good business at the Emmys in September, and it’s likely that we’ll see a repeat of at least some of that, though the Golden Globes are much more ripe for an upset. With the surprising absence of Veep, and no Transparent or Orange Is the New Black, which have had a strong showing up until now, the comedy categories are particularly up in the air. What with the influx of Hollywood A-listers to TV, this year will be particularly starry, but may also be one for the underdogs to shine.

Best drama

Last year’s winner The Crown returned with a grand second season, but given that its victory felt like a shock in 2017, it’s hard to imagine it pulling off the double. Stranger Things had a patchier second season than the first, when it seemed more likely to win – and frankly its inclusion here feels like more of a nod to the zeitgeist than a true reflection of its quality. The Handmaid’s Tale wasn’t perfect, and could well suffer from the same sort of criticisms, but it was more of its time than anything else, was consistently original, and given its dominance of the Emmys, it would be no surprise if it cleaned up here, too.

Will win: The Handmaid’s Tale

Should win: The Handmaid’s Tale

Best comedy or musical

For the first time in years, this category appears to have cracked down on what counts as comedy, as opposed to shorter dramas with the occasional moments of absurdity (hello, Transparent). There’s an honourable mix of the established (Black-ish), the very well established (Will and Grace, which, with a surprisingly strong comeback, deserves its nod) and the brand new (The Marvelous Mrs Maisel and Smilf). Given its spread of nominations, historical showing and Tracee Ellis Ross’s best actress win last year, Black-ish may well finally get the gong, if only to make up for the controversial snub of Ellis Ross this year. But it would be a treat for the inventive and increasingly confident Master of None to triumph too.

Will win: Black-ish

Should win: Master of None

Best TV movie or limited series

No TV movies were shortlisted, though HBO’s Madoff drama Wizard of Lies has its acting nods instead, so it’s all about the limited series. If there is any realistic expectation of an upset for the big-name, glossy juggernaut that is Big Little Lies, leading the pack with six nominations, then perhaps there might be enough love for Fargo’s excellent third season, but let’s face it, this one feels as if it’s already in the very expensive designer handbag. And rightly so – it was a slick, masterly series packed to bursting with thrilling plot and elegant performances.

Will win: Big Little Lies

Should win: Big Little Lies

Best actor in a drama

This category feels like a clear indication that women have led the field in 2017, in terms of both characters and storytelling, and there isn’t one obvious standout. However, the Globes have shown their love for Ozark where other ceremonies have not, and Bateman has won it before, for his comedic side, in Arrested Development back in 2005. While Bob Odenkirk and Liev Schreiber may be similarly sturdy bets, Sterling K Brown was nominated last year for the much-decorated The People vs OJ Simpson, and this may be his chance to repeat his This Is Us Emmy win – which would mean another outstanding victory speech.

Will win: Jason Bateman, Ozark

Should win: Sterling K Brown, This Is Us

Best actress in a drama

Claire Foy is routinely excellent as the Queen in The Crown, and deserved her Globe last year, but it’s likely to go to Elisabeth Moss this year, for suffering all the rage of Gilead in The Handmaid’s Tale. Look out for 13 Reasons Why’s Katherine Langford as a potential underdog. The show may not have been to all tastes, but her harrowing performance was deeply convincing. The Deuce, however, is criminally underrepresented – perhaps it will pick up more love as the series progresses – and it deserves some recognition, not least for Gyllenhaal, who was magnificent as Candy/Eileen, and embodied the show’s brittle heart.

Will win: Elisabeth Moss

Should win: Maggie Gyllenhaal

Best actor in a comedy

There are heavyweights to contend with – Eric McCormack has almost 20 years of playing Will & Grace’s Will Truman under his belt, while William H Macy has been nominated for Shameless before, in 2015, and Kevin Bacon is, well, Kevin Bacon, swimming through the often difficult I Love Dick. But it’s down to two frontrunners. Aziz Ansari will probably build on the success of Master Of None’s truly brilliant return, and deserves to, though if Anthony Anderson finally wins for Black-ish – and with this season’s more in-depth silliness, he may well do – nobody is likely to complain.

Will win: Aziz Ansari, Master of None

Should win: Anthony Anderson, Black-ish

Best actress in a comedy

This is a particularly strong category, and each nominee has carved out a specific and unique path. Pamela Adlon’s Better Things went from strength to strength this year, and what she created was wonderful, warm and affectingly blunt. It would be a shame if the Louis CK fallout were to taint what she achieved. But with a strong, more steady, and consistently creative second season of Insecure, which she also created and co-writes, it feels as if this should, rightfully, be Issa Rae’s year.

Will win: Issa Rae, Insecure

Should win: Issa Rae, Insecure

Best actor in a TV movie or limited series

Robert De Niro plus a prosthetic nose feels more Oscars than Golden Globes, which may nix his chances for The Wizard of Lies here, in addition to the fact that he’s among strong competitors. Paolo Sorrentino’s extraordinary vision of The Young Pope gave Jude Law the chance to smarm and charm as only Law can do, and it would be a nice way to recognise the ambition of this often astonishing series, which has never quite earned the level of acclaim it should have. A win for him would be some way of recognising the show. However, Ewan McGregor was fantastic as the troubled twins Emmit and Ray Stussy, and surely will walk away with it, not least for doing twice the work of everyone else.

Will win: Ewan McGregor, Fargo

Should win: Jude Law, The Young Pope

Best actress in a TV movie or limited series

Kidman had two knockout TV roles in 2017, stealing the show as a wafty freckled academic in the divisive Top of the Lake: China Girl, but it’s her subtle and strange turn as a woman in the middle of an abusive relationship that should grab her the honours. It was the meatiest role in Big Little Lies, though she and Reese Witherspoon shared the heavy lifting. Feud’s up for four awards, and Jessica Lange and Susan Sarandon could relive the Davis/Crawford rivalry here, but all would be safe choices. The Sinner was as trashy as it was thrilling, in the end, and both aspects were a lot of fun, but it gave Jessica Biel a vehicle that she drove into the sunset with and proved her considerable acting chops.

Will win: Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

Should win: Jessica Biel, The Sinner

Best supporting actor

Again, star power and a strong storyline should propel Big Little Lies to victory here. Skarsgård plays an excellent creep, and was truly chilling as the picture-perfect husband who never seemed to quite grasp the depravity of his actions. Davids Thewlis and Harbour played it grisly and grizzled for Fargo and Stranger Things respectively, but Alfred Molina’s take on director Robert Aldrich was funny, touching and desperate, and may be one of his finest roles in a long and fine career.

Will win: Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies

Should win: Alfred Molina, Feud: The Bette and Joan Story

Best supporting actress

Big Little Lies has two categories pitching its female stars against each other, and this time it’s Laura Dern’s Renata versus the traumatised Jane, played by Shailene Woodley. While Dern offered some necessary balance and even comedy in her uptight, Waspy panic, it may be a case of BLL overload, and Michelle Pfeiffer’s remarkable career comeback continued with a movie-saving turn in HBO’s Madoff drama, for which she’ll probably be rewarded. However, Ann Dowd summoned stern cruelty as Aunt Lydia in The Handmaid’s Tale, and it would be no great surprise nor disservice if she walked away with it.

Will win: Michelle Pfeiffer, The Wizard of Lies

Should win: Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale