Who could have predicted that Frances McDormand and Gary Oldman would have won lead acting Oscars this time last year? OK, well, maybe a lot of people, since neither award was a shock – but the season has seen a shifting set of favorites and a collection of films that have engaged audiences and critics more than usual.
Looking ahead to next year, there’s a bounty of Oscar-aiming films and performances already being primed for glory but who should you place an early bet on?
Lucas Hedges
After picking up a best supporting actor nomination for Manchester by the Sea and following it up with small roles in both Lady Bird and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, at 21, Lucas Hedges has already become something of an Academy staple. Next year could see him edge into the best actor category for his role as a preacher’s son forced to attend gay “conversion” therapy in Boy Erased. It’s based on the acclaimed memoir from Garrard Conley, also stars the Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Nicole Kidman and will be directed by Joel Edgerton (his last film, The Gift, was a surprise critical and commercial hit). The subject matter is ripe (this year’s big Sundance winner was Desiree Akhavan’s similarly themed The Miseducation of Cameron Post) and could continue a strong period for LGBT films at the Oscars.
Barry Jenkins
While Moonlight pulled off a deserved shock victory at last year’s Oscars, the writer-director Barry Jenkins was unfairly overlooked for his artful direction. There’s a high likelihood that he’ll be a major player in next year’s race with his much-anticipated follow-up, the James Baldwin adaptation If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s the tale of a pregnant woman trying to prove her fiance innocent of a crime. Jenkins has assembled a stacked cast, including Regina King, Diego Luna, Dave Franco, Atlanta’s Brian Tyree Henry, Chi-Raq’s Teyonah Parris, Race’s Stephan James, Fear the Walking Dead’s Colman Domingo and the newcomer Kiki Layne as the lead. The majority of the behind-the-scenes crew that created Moonlight is also returning so expectations are high.
Saoirse Ronan
She might have lost out to Frances McDormand this year but no tears for Saoirse Ronan, who has accrued three Oscar nominations by the age of 23. After arguably her finest work in Lady Bird, she could be Meryl Streeping her way back to the big stage by doing something that proves irresistible to Academy voters: playing a royal. She’s the lead in Mary Queen of Scots alongside her fellow best actress nominee Margot Robbie in a film scripted by House of Cards’ Beau Willimon, hinting at a more Elizabeth-esque period thriller.
Cate Blanchett
With two wins and another five nominations under her belt since she broke out in 1998 with Elizabeth, Cate Blanchett is never far from the Oscars stage. After she destroys the childhoods of insecure men worldwide with her role in Ocean’s 8, Blanchett will appear in the latest from Richard Linklater, who last impressed the Academy with his 2014 winner Boyhood. She’s aiming for best supporting actress territory playing the titular role in Where’d You Go, Bernadette?, as a misanthropic agoraphobe who goes missing. The comedy-drama also stars Kristen Wiig and Laurence Fishburne. Anyone who claims not to be interested in a film with Cate Blanchett playing a misanthropic agoraphobe is a liar.
Steve Carell
Ever since he picked up a best actor nomination for his role in Foxcatcher, Steve Carell has been stuck in Oscar-bait purgatory, with the misfiring dramas Freeheld, Battle of the Sexes and Last Flag Flying all failing to soar. There’s a strong chance that his luck is about to change with three major projects that could see him back in the conversation. The first is Beautiful Boy, which sees him star as a father trying to save his son, played by Timothée Chalamet, from an addiction to crystal meth. The second is a lead in Robert Zemeckis’s The Women of Marwen, based on the true story of a man getting over a violent attack by creating a miniature town. And finally, he’ll play Donald Rumsfeld in Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic Backseat.
Ryan Gosling
After Damien Chazelle, director of La La Land, helped Ryan Gosling to his second best actor nomination, Chazelle is wisely sticking with him for his next, most ambitious project, First Man. Gosling will be playing Neil Armstrong in a drama covering the astronaut’s life between 1961 and 1969, based on a book by the history professor James R Hansen. The rights were originally obtained by the Oscar magnet Clint Eastwood in 2003, but after the project fell through, Chazelle ended up picking it as his first project after winning best director at the 2017 Oscars. It’s a big role for Gosling and should allow him to break out of a type he’s often stuck playing.
Taraji P Henson
Three years after performing the Oscar-winning song It’s Hard Out Here for a Pimp at the 2005 ceremony, Taraji P Henson scored a best supporting actress nomination for her role in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Last year, her work in Hidden Figures might have been overlooked but the film scored three nominations. She’s teaming up with this year’s best supporting actor winner, Sam Rockwell, for her next awards-friendly role. She plays the civil rights activist Ann Atwater in the fact-based drama The Best of Enemies, a film about the unlikely friendship Atwater shared with the ranking Ku Klux Klan member Claiborne Paul Ellis, played by Rockwell. It’s an indie from the first-time director Robin Bissell but the timely plot could lead it to big things.
Glenn Close
After Leonardo DiCaprio finally won an Oscar on his fifth attempt, putting an end to the Poor Leo meme, it seemed like the six-time nominee Glenn Close might finally be the next forever-bridesmaid to get up on stage after she received a string of superlatives for her role in The Wife. The film premiered at the 2017 Toronto film festival without a distributor and by the time Sony Pictures Classics picked it up, the wise decision was made to hold it until the following qualifying year. Most have agreed that the film, one of the few on the list that has already been seen, is easily one of Close’s greatest performances and the buzz should fuel a busy awards season for her.
Robert Redford
Despite some deserved buzz for his one-man survival drama All is Lost, Robert Redford has been absent from the Oscars race since 1995’s Quiz Show. On the surface, his next project sounds airplane-movie familiar (an elderly bank robber plans a final heist from inside a retirement community) but there’s more to the film than meets the eye. First, it’s based on a New Yorker article that told the true story of Forrest Tucker, a prison escape artist; second, it also stars Elisabeth Moss, Casey Affleck, Tom Waits and Sissy Spacek; and third, most importantly, it’s the latest film from David Lowery, who has proved to be equally adept making small (A Ghost Story, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints) and big (Pete’s Dragon) films.
Julianne Moore
Rightfully triumphing in 2015 for her devastating performance in Still Alice, Julianne More received her first Oscar win after four nominations. The last year saw her stumble in both Wonderstruck and Suburbicon but she could be returning to the conversation with her lead in Sebastián Lelio’s remake of his own film Gloria. The 2013 original is a poignant, charming drama about an older woman, beautifully played by Paulina García, looking for love and companionship at dance clubs in Santiago. Moore will lead the new version, relocated to Los Angeles. Like the original, it should provide its star with a fascinating, layered character to inhabit and given that Lelio, whose acclaimed drama A Fantastic Woman won best foreign language film this year, is taking the reins, it could be a remake worth making.
