This year’s Bafta film ceremony arrives with the organisers doing their best to confront the elephant in the living room and grab it by the tusks. In response to claims of abusive behaviour by director Bryan Singer, the contractually-credited director of the Bafta-nominated Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, Singer’s name has been removed from the awards citation. In fact, Singer left the film before the end of the shoot and was replaced by the uncredited Dexter Fletcher. But it shows that the debate about abusive sexual politics in film production is far from over. There are more worries, incidentally, about an all-male director lineup in the Bafta nominations, which overlooks Lynne Ramsay and Debra Granik.

That said, there are plenty of films to feel enthusiastic about. Alfonso Cuarón’s glorious Roma – his intensely personal and beautiful film about a troubled upbringing in 70s Mexico City – is likely to clean up, and its landslide is so overwhelmingly probable that my predictions below include some counter-balancing tips for Paweł Pawlikowski’s sublime Cold War, which could just as easily be dominating the awards-season conversation. Yet much of the talk has been about Yorgos Lanthimos’s The Favourite, the absurdist post-Restoration romp about dysfunctional sexual politics at the court of Queen Anne. It is sure to pick up some silverware, including something for Olivia Colman for best actress: her Bafta coronation is regarded by one and all as a sure thing. (Yet what I can only call a prominent member of the media/show business community has pointed out to me how extraordinary it is that online bookies are still accepting bets on Colman, though at the shortest of odds. Do they know something we don’t?)

There could still be a rush of prizes for Peter Farrelly’s Green Book, the feelgood true-life bromance between a 1960s Italian-American nightclub bouncer (Viggo Mortensen) and the distinguished black musician (Mahershala Ali) that he had to chauffeur on a pioneering tour of the Jim Crow south. My feeling is that Mortensen and Ali are excellent actors outclassing their material here. But there is a lot of love out there for this warm, good-natured film, and at both the Baftas and Oscars, Green Book could yet defy the tipsters (including me).

Bradley Cooper’s extravagantly emotional new version of A Star Is Born, which many assumed would be an awards frontrunner when it came out last year, could be almost completely shut out. But it may get the music Bafta and B-Coop himself might beat Bohemian Rhapsody’s Rami Malek to the best actor prize.

I am hoping to see Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty take the stage to accept a Bafta for their superlative comedy Can You Ever Forgive Me? (whose outstanding star Melissa McCarthy can’t be ruled out of a best actress prize). The race for best supporting actor mask is between Mahershala Ali and Richard E Grant, the latter for his deeply enjoyable turn in CYEFM? as McCarthy’s drinking buddy who makes things much worse with his cheerful selfishness.

The documentary prize will probably (and understandably) go to the gobsmacking Free Solo about Alex Honnold and his mind-blowingly dangerous habit of climbing without a rope, although I think the more deserving contender is Peter Jackson’s amazing first world war western front documentary They Shall Not Grow Old – and I am dismayed to see some commenters, through misguided purism, attacking his colourisation of newsreel footage.

Meanwhile, the animation Bafta must surely go to the brilliant, delirium-inducing Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.

Best film

Will win: Roma (dir Alfonso Cuarón)
Should win: Roma (dir Alfonso Cuarón)
Shoulda been a contender: Leave No Trace (dir Debra Granik)

Outstanding British film

Will win: The Favourite (dir Yorgos Lanthimos)
Should win: The Favourite (dir Yorgos Lanthimos)
Shoulda been a contender: Widows (dir Steve McQueen)

Outstanding British debut

Will win: Beast (dir Michael Pearce)
Should win: Apostasy (dir Daniel Kokotajlo)
Shoulda been a contender: The Wound (dir John Trengove)

Film not in the English language

Will win: Roma (dir Alfonso Cuarón)
Should win: Cold War (dir Paweł Pawlikowski)
Shoulda been a contender: Loveless (dir Andrei Zvyagintsev)

Best documentary

Will win: Free Solo (dir Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin)
Should win: They Shall Not Grow Old (dir Peter Jackson)
Shoulda been a contender: The Rape of Recy Taylor (dir Nancy Buirski)

Best animated film

Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (dirs Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)
Should win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (dirs Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman)
Shoulda been a contender: Early Man (dir Nick Park)

Best director

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón for Roma
Should win: Paweł Pawlikowski for Cold War
Shoulda been a contender: Lee Chang-dong for Burning

Best original screenplay

Will win: Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga for Green Book (dir Peter Farrelly)
Should win: Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara for The Favourite (dir Yorgos Lanthimos)
Shoulda been a contender: Hirokazu Kore-eda for Shoplifters (dir Hirokazu Kore-eda)

Best adapted screenplay

Will win: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty for Can You Ever Forgive Me? (dir Marielle Heller)
Should win: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty for Can You Ever Forgive Me? (dir Marielle Heller)
Shoulda been a contender: Paul Dano and Zoe Kazan for Wildlife (dir Paul Dano)

Best actor

Will win: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody (dir Bryan Singer)
Should win: Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born (dir Bradley Cooper)
Shoulda been a contender: Rupert Everett for The Happy Prince (dir Rupert Everett)

Best actress

Will win: Olivia Colman for The Favourite (dir Yorgos Lanthimos)
Should win: Olivia Colman for The Favourite (dir Yorgos Lanthimos)
Shoulda been a contender: Toni Collette for Hereditary (dir Ari Aster)

Best supporting actor

Will win: Mahershali Ali for Green Book (dir Peter Farrelly)
Should win: Richard E Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me? (dir Marielle Heller)
Shoulda been a contender: Craig Robinson for An Evening with Beverly Luff Linn (dir Jim Hosking)

Best supporting actress

Will win: Emma Stone for The Favourite (dir Yorgos Lanthimos)
Should win: Emma Stone for The Favourite (dir Yorgos Lanthimos)
Shoulda been a contender: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk (dir Barry Jenkins)

Best music

Will win: Marc Shaiman for Mary Poppins Returns (dir Rob Marshall)
Should win: Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga and Lukas Nelson for A Star Is Born (dir Bradley Cooper)
Shoulda been a contender [posthumous]: Jóhann Jóhannsson for Mandy (dir Panos Cosmatos)

Best cinematography

Will win: Linus Sandgren for First Man (dir Damien Chazelle)
Should win: Łukasz Żal for Cold War (dir Paweł Pawlikowski)
Shoulda been a contender: Rui Poças for Zama (dir Lucrecia Martel)