It seemed for a moment that the industry was willing to turn its back on the Golden Globes and the long-cursed Hollywood Foreign Press Association that decides upon them. The group had been a joke for years but it took some damaging exposés in 2021 to turn the fun-poking into some finger-pointing, accusations of “ethical lapses” and some serious diversity issues leading the awards into disarray.

But (show)business is (show)business and it seems as if enough hand-wringing and retooling has allowed them back into the fold with a new voting body – bigger, younger, more international and more diverse – and a new network home in CBS over NBC. This year’s flashy ceremony, taking place on Sunday, is likely to be dominated by Barbenheimer, but with a fresh set of new voters, it could be an evening full of surprises.

Best film (drama)

It’s looking like the night’s big dramatic race will be a two-horse one, between a pair of auteur-led epics about amoral men at troubling times in US history. While it’s true that Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon certainly has more recent visibility and a more effective narrative right now, it’s slightly easier to see Oppenheimer snag a victory – the longer lead-up, the cultural stranglehold, the starry cast – and will make for some attention-grabbing Barbenheimer headlines come Monday. Traditionally a film such as Maestro would have ticked a lot of HFPA boxes, but it feels like that film has brought more admiration than all-out love while other less obvious Globe nominees, such as Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest, are remarkable for their inclusion alone, the nomination being the win and all that.

Will win: Oppenheimer

Should win: Past Lives

Shoulda been nominated: All of Us Strangers

Best actress (drama)

Our traditional view of what the Globes represents and rewards would have led us to one of the more recognisable names on the list – Annette Bening or Carey Mulligan, perhaps – but the newer voting body is more likely to follow the critical majority and give this one to the lesser-known Lily Gladstone. She’s the devastating emotional core of Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon and ever since Sag rules have allowed, she’s been a compelling and consistent presence on the campaign trail, providing voters with the most appealing narrative of any actor in the category. A win would reflect the Globes’ more diverse and international direction, with Gladstone one of three nominees, together with Greta Lee and Sandra Hüller, who speak in more than one language in their films. It’s hard to see who else has a chance of beating her. Hüller would maybe be a distant next guess with Priscilla’s Cailee Spaeny the outsider – and her win would help to confirm her status as Oscar frontrunner.

Will win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Should win: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Shoulda been nominated: Jessica Chastain, Memory

Best actor (drama)

Unlike the more-locked best actress race, there are two nominees here that one could see walking away with the Globe: Bradley Cooper or Cillian Murphy. Cooper’s turn as Leonard Bernstein in his passion project Maestro might end up being the more Globesy of the pair – a handsome A-lister playing an award-winning industry celebrity – but feeling toward the film is perhaps too lukewarm for him to win out. While Murphy has been notably less showy on the campaign trail, his commanding lead performance in Oppenheimer seems like it’s slightly more likely to win, given the film’s broader appeal and strong showing (it’s the second most-nominated film of the night). Deserved but expected nods for Colman Domingo and Leonardo DiCaprio are unlikely to pan out while the deserved yet unexpected inclusion of Andrew Scott is pleasing recognition in itself. Barry Keoghan’s Saltburn nom is proof that the Globes will never stop Globesing.

Will win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Should win: Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Shoulda been nominated: Alden Ehrenreich, Fair Play

Best film (comedy or musical)

Here is a category that has long brought ridicule upon the HFPA, previous nominees having included The Tourist, Burlesque and Music, but this year offers up an unusually robust set of nominees, almost all of which are set to be in the Oscar best picture category as well. There are arguments to be made that something more offbeat like Poor Things or substantial like The Holdovers could win after last year’s ceremony saw The Banshees of Inisherin pull a surprise victory over Everything Everywhere All at Once. I still think the obvious choice, Barbie, will be the winner, its very existence justifying the HFPA’s decision to split comedy and drama categories. It’s the most nominated film of the evening as well as being last year’s biggest box office hit, and Greta Gerwig would be one of only four women ever to have seen their films win in this category. A win for Wonka or Air seems the least likely, but it’s also worth keeping an eye on potential spoiler American Fiction, its combination of social satire and family drama making it an appealing choice for voters.

Will win: Barbie

Should win: The Holdovers

Shoulda been nominated: You Hurt My Feelings

Best actress (comedy or musical)

A win here for Emma Stone’s audacious turn as a woman discovering herself in Yorgos Lanthimos’s bizarro comedy Poor Things feels like the perfect compromise between the old and the new HFPA. Stone is the sort of glamorous Hollywood A-lister the Globes have loved for a long time (she’s won a Globe already, and this year brings her up to eight nominations with a nod in the TV categories for her note-perfect work in The Curse) while something as strange and international as Poor Things speaks to the newer voting body. Her closest and arguably only real competition would be Margot Robbie, if the winners are as Barbie-dominated as the nominations, with Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence, Fantasia Barrino and surprise pick Alma Pöysti all trailing far behind.

Will win: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Should win: Natalie Portman, May December

Shoulda been nominated: Eve Hewson, Flora and Son

Best actor (comedy or musical)

A tough category here with two strong frontrunners, both of whom one could easily see connecting enough with voters. Paul Giamatti, who has won two Globes before for TV work, might have been out of the picture for a while (his last nomination was 12 years ago), but if he ever were to win for the film side, it would be for his role in The Holdovers, his winning reunion with Sideways director Alexander Payne. His lead performance is one of the many reasons why the film has won over so many people but he faces stiff competition from another much-loved actor in another audience-loved comedy. Jeffrey Wright, who won a TV Globe back in 2004, is the anchor of American Fiction, and while he might not have as many tear-jerking dramatic moments as Giamatti, that might not matter as much in the comedy category, his work and the film as a whole more easily fitting the bill. There’s little competition elsewhere with Nicolas Cage, Timothée Chalamet, Joaquin Phoenix and especially Matt Damon trailing far, far behind.

Will win: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Should win: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Shoulda been nominated: Jamie Foxx, The Burial

Best supporting actress

Having already won virtually all critics’ prizes for her role in bittersweet comedy drama The Holdovers, Da’Vine Joy Randolph heads into this Sunday’s ceremony as the easiest (and arguably worthiest) winner to predict. Again, there are bigger names that would seem more Globes-friendly, such as previous winners Jodie Foster (who randomly won in 2021 for The Mauritanian, the only time in 30 years that a winner in this category didn’t then win or even get nominated at the Oscars), Emily Blunt, Rosamund Pike and Julianne Moore. In fact, the closest thing Randolph has to actual competition would be Danielle Brooks, the only other first-time Globes nominee here. Brooks’ performance in The Color Purple has been seen by some as a last-minute spoiler but it feels like too little, too late, and so Randolph still has it in the bag.

Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Should win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Shoulda been nominated: Rachel McAdams, Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret

Best supporting actor

A deluge of critics’ awards going to May December’s Charles Melton might have made it seem as if the ex-Riverdale actor has this one sewn up, but it could be one of many years where the larger voting groups don’t agree with the many regional critics. A win for Robert Downey Jr would be a recognition not only for his transformative performance in Oppenheimer but also for his broader commercial impact, helping to make millions for the industry as the actor who spearheaded the rise of the superhero movie. Melton remains tough competition, however, and it’s possible that a retooled voting body might prefer his performance and story to Downey Jr’s (the actor has won three Globes before). There’s also an argument to be made for Ryan Gosling, who was seen as many as the standout from Barbie, but it could be that himself and Poor Things nominees Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe might be seen as too broadly funny to be deemed worthy alongside meatier performances. Robert De Niro, as deserving as he is in Killers of the Flower Moon, remains an outsider.

Will win: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer

Should win: Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Shoulda been nominated: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best director

While the major Barbie and Oppenheimer awards of the night are mainly separated by genre, the best director category might end up being the big head-to-head and one that could easily go either way. One could see voters swayed by how Greta Gerwig took on a seemingly thankless piece of branded content and turned it into a cultural phenomenon, but then many see six-time nominee Christopher Nolan’s hit biopic as his magnum opus and a win here would also be a reward for his relatively awards-free career up until this point. Given the less divisive nature of the film and his more traditional steering, Nolan seems like the more likely winner. A spoiler could come in the form of Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon, but with the director already winning this award three times before (once for Hugo!), voters might be more persuaded to share the wealth. It’s a pleasure to see Celine Song score for her debut Past Lives and Yorgos Lanthimos get a nod after being snubbed for The Favourite, but both, along with Bradley Cooper for Maestro, feel like unlikely picks.

Will win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Should win: Celine Song, Past Lives

Shoulda been nominated: Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers